How Many Rounds.....................

Tactical issues and scenarios regarding carrying and self defense.

How Many Rounds.....................

Postby hammAR » Fri May 10, 2019 7:53 am

Here’s How Many Rounds You Actually Need In Your Carry Gun
by S.H. BLANNELBERRY on MAY 9, 2019

Do you want to know how many rounds you actually need in your carry gun? The correct answer is you won’t know until after the fact, I’m sad to report.

Every defensive gun use situation is different. Millions of variables to consider, everything from the distance to target, number of attackers, caliber of weapon to the expertise of the shooter, etc. etc., etc., all play a factor. Trying to prescribe a universal round count, a one-size-fits-all for every concealed carrier, is, therefore, a fool’s errand. Telling you that you need “x” number does you no good because you may only need “y” or you may actually need “z.” You won’t know until the threat is eliminated.

With that said, this week, I came across an article by a brilliant writer and 2A advocate from the Cato Institute, Matthew Larosiere, that postulated that 12 was the minimum number of rounds a novice cop should have in his sidearm to reliably put down a violent attacker.

“It’s important to consider the realities of defensive gun use, which occur hundreds of thousands, or even millions of times per year. Someone who finds their home being invaded didn’t plan the encounter,” Larosiere wrote in his article “A Defense of Assault Weapons,” published by The Orange County Register.

“Even law enforcement officers have a 39 percent probability to hit a target in a high-stress situation,” he continued. “This, combined with the fact that each hit with a handgun or intermediate cartridge has only an approximate 22 percent chance to stop the target, explains the need for larger magazines. From this, we can extrapolate that a novice law enforcement officer (likely more experienced than the average American) would need about 12 shots to reliably stop a single attacker.”

I reached out to Matt to get his sources for those percentages. Numbers were plucked from a 2015 study by the International Journal of Police Science & Management, which found hit probability for novice shooters, intermediate shooters and expert shooters at typical engagement distances (3 to 75ft). Per the study:

- Novice Shooter: 39 percent hit probability
- Intermediate Shooter: 48 percent hit probability
- Expert Shooter: 49 percent hit probability

Matt then juxtaposed that info against an article debunking the myth of the single shot kill, a real-life defensive gun use encounter, and academic research published by the Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, titled, “Unusually Low Mortality of Penetrating Wounds of the Chest,” to surmise that each hit only has a 22 percent chance of stopping the target.

Of course, these numbers are rough approximations and not a definitive evaluation of the subject. But let’s roll with the numbers Matt researched. Let’s assume you’re a novice shooter on par with a novice police officer (per the study) and you draw your Glock 43 with a flush-fitting magazine to stop an assailant who is about to commit a forcible felony against your wife. Are 6+1 rounds of 9mm enough?

You may think that if I fire seven rounds at least two to three rounds are going to penetrate the rapist because 2.8 is 40 percent of seven. However, you need to remember there are no guarantees that any round lands on target. It’s a highly stressful situation. Your flight, flight, freeze (aka autonomic nervous) system is kicking in so your heart is pounding and your hands are sweating. Put another way, you have a 60 percent chance of missing the target altogether after every pull of the trigger.

But let’s say this happens during the confrontation: Round 1: miss. Round 2: miss. Round 3: hit. Round 4: miss. Round 5: miss. Round 6: hit. Round 7: miss. You did hit him twice! Nice shooting! But will that stop him?

With that first hit there is a 78 percent chance that it did not. And with that second shot, even with the compounded effect of the first shot, it’s not certain that he is stopping the assault. It’s hard to exactly quantify in a percentage because there’s no way to factor in the wounding repercussions of the first hit. A bullet to the thigh is going to affect one differently than a bullet to the brain.

We’ve all heard of stories where assailants are shot 6, 7, 8 times and keep charging, especially in cases where they’re fueled by drugs. It’s a really scary thought. I guess we can state the obvious at this point. There is a reason why law enforcement officers carry duty-sized guns with a capacity exceeding 10 rounds along with several extra mags and, in some cases, a backup gun. Because when it hits the fan there are no guarantees about capacity, save one: more is better.

Let me just add that the vast majority of DGU cases don’t involve a gun even being fired. Simply brandishing one is enough to send a perp running in most instances. I’ve also heard people cite stats suggesting that in DGU cases where shots are fired, four to two is about the average depending on the study. There is probably truth to that as well because the loud report of the firearm is enough of a situation resolver, to say nothing of the lead heading the perp’s way. Presumably, most bad guys flee after hearing the first “bang.” Most is the operative word as not all bad guys will bolt.

Which raises the question: Does your carry loadout cover you for both types of bad guys: the common runner and the rare fighter? I’m guessing your J-frame-sized wheel gun or subcompact carry pistol with a flush mag holds either 5 or 7 rounds, respectively. Sure, that will work on a weak-kneed runner. But are you confident enough that it will put down a violent fighter?


Original article: LINK
"The politically correct crowd is tolerant of all viewpoints, except those they disagree with,” - Bobby Jindal
"“I am the infidel your Imam warned you about.”"
User avatar
hammAR
 
Posts: 6674
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:17 am
Location: Auribus teneo lupum

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby Justaguy » Tue May 14, 2019 10:23 pm

So when revolvers were prevalent a lot less scumbags were shot?
What Would The Navy Seals That Killed Binladen Do
(WWTNSTKBD)
Justaguy
 
Posts: 1812
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:36 pm

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby hammAR » Wed May 15, 2019 7:52 am

Justaguy wrote:So when revolvers were prevalent a lot less scumbags were shot?


Maybe they were just better shooters.......................... :?
"The politically correct crowd is tolerant of all viewpoints, except those they disagree with,” - Bobby Jindal
"“I am the infidel your Imam warned you about.”"
User avatar
hammAR
 
Posts: 6674
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:17 am
Location: Auribus teneo lupum

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby BigDog58 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:36 am

I would estimate that the majority of those revolvers, were either 38 Spl or 357 Mag, with a bit more umph, than the 9 mm of those days.

I hope I never have to find out how many I need, but my G30 has 11 rounds and the backup mag has 10 rounds.

So, if you EVER see my fat ass running, you might also want to run. It means either I missed, or the sumbitch is tough enough that my 45 ACP round, didn't stop him. :shock:
NRA Range Safety Officer

If necessary to fight, I will Fight like I'm the 3rd Monkey on the ramp to Noah's Arc, and brother, it's starting to rain
User avatar
BigDog58
 
Posts: 922
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:46 am
Location: Edina, MN

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby Rip Van Winkle » Thu May 16, 2019 7:36 am

The article is an interesting academic exercise.

I wonder how the percentages are affected by the pray & spray tactics developed with the advent of the high capacity 9mm semi-autos.
The one of the 29 of the 8,000!
48 down, Still need a heavy!
President's Hundred (#48 2018)
Post 435 Gun Club
North Star Rifle Club
Image
User avatar
Rip Van Winkle
 
Posts: 2041
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:34 pm
Location: Anywhere there's a rifle match

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby hammAR » Thu May 16, 2019 7:47 am

"The politically correct crowd is tolerant of all viewpoints, except those they disagree with,” - Bobby Jindal
"“I am the infidel your Imam warned you about.”"
User avatar
hammAR
 
Posts: 6674
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:17 am
Location: Auribus teneo lupum

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby Justaguy » Fri May 17, 2019 4:53 pm

A lot of holes in this article. (See what I did there?)

What is “stopping” an attacker? I’ve never read an article that the average person in a situation died because they ran out of ammo in a firefight Dirty Harry style. There was the FBI in Miami (I think), but that wasn’t your average joe. Cops have a lot more options then just handguns at arms reach.
What Would The Navy Seals That Killed Binladen Do
(WWTNSTKBD)
Justaguy
 
Posts: 1812
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:36 pm

Re: How Many Rounds.....................

Postby Pat Cannon » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:35 pm

Rip Van Winkle wrote:The article is an interesting academic exercise.

I wonder how the percentages are affected by the pray & spray tactics developed with the advent of the high capacity 9mm semi-autos.

Kinda what I was thinking. I suspect the number of rounds reported as "required" to stop a threat, are generally exactly equal to the number of rounds fired.

E.g., if there were a blank on the incident report form labeled "number of rounds fired after threat eliminated", it would probably be pre-filled on the printed form with a zero, just to make sure nobody got it wrong.
I do kinda love the bright sword for its sharpness.
User avatar
Pat Cannon
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2011 3:08 pm
Location: Minneapolis 3rd Precinct, Sector 3


Return to Carry Tactics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron

x